CISD
Change in state of delivery
What it identifies
When price is falling, it usually does so through a run of consecutive down candles. Each one opens and closes lower than the last. That sequence is what the term delivery describes: price being moved consistently in one direction.
A change in state of delivery is the moment that stops. Specifically, it is price closing back above the opening price of the final down candle in that sequence, which suggests the mechanism pushing price lower is no longer working.
Finding the line
Change in state of delivery
CISD line: open of the last down candle
A run of consecutive down candles. Price is being delivered lower, one candle at a time.
The final down candle of that sequence. Its opening price becomes the reference line.
Price closes back above that opening price. The mechanism that was pushing price down has stopped working, which is the change being identified.
A break of structure needs a previous swing point to be taken out. A CISD can appear earlier, since it only requires reclaiming the open of the last opposing candle.
For a bullish CISD, find the last run of down candles before price turned, take the open of the final one, and draw a horizontal line there. A close above that line is the signal. For a bearish CISD, the same applies in reverse using the open of the last up candle.
Why not just use a break of structure
Both identify a shift, but they trigger at different moments. A break of structure requires price to take out a previous swing point, which can be far away. A CISD only requires reclaiming one candle open, so it appears earlier in the move.
Where each one triggers
Price falls from 1.0920 to 1.0850, then turns. The last down candle in that fall opened at 1.0862. The previous swing high sits at 1.0895.
The CISD triggers at 1.0862, giving an entry with a stop below 1.0850, so 12 pips of risk. Waiting for the break of structure means entering at 1.0895, with the same stop, so 45 pips of risk.
Same idea, same invalidation level, but nearly four times the position size for the same money risked. The cost is that the earlier signal is less confirmed.
That is the trade-off in one line: earlier entry and better reward to risk, at the price of more signals that fail. Neither is universally better, and many traders use CISD for entry timing while still requiring structure to agree on the direction.
What makes one more reliable
- It follows a liquidity sweep, so the reversal has a reason rather than appearing at random.
- It occurs in the correct half of the range, meaning a bullish CISD forming in discount.
- It happens during an active session rather than in thin overnight conditions.
- It agrees with the higher timeframe direction instead of fading it.
A CISD appearing on its own, mid-range and against the larger trend, is the weakest version of the pattern and the one most likely to fail immediately.
Because the signal is a single candle close, it produces far more occurrences than a structural break does, and most of them lead nowhere. The filters above are doing most of the work, not the pattern itself.
If you use it, record which filters were present on each trade. Comparing outcomes across a reasonable sample is the only way to know whether the earlier entry is worth the lower confirmation.